Other ideas for testing market size

[thelontx]

Hello all,

I need some advice on testing market size before I decide to proceed with my muse idea. My primary concern is that the market is too small OR that the market does not know that it "needs" my product.

I have 2 somewhat related ideas within the music event management industry (rock concerts, festivals, touring bands, etc): 1.) a "How to" product for being an event manager (a.k.a. stage manager, production manager, tour manager) AND 2.) a software application to assist with running such events.

Here's what I have done in the last week:
-- I checked out a number of magazines and found one where about 30-40% of the magazine's readership is my target market. Unfortunately, the magazine will not release readership numbers. I also cannot locate the magazine in print copies of "Writer's Market" or SRDS that I have found.
-- got an LLC started
-- reserved a couple of domain names that could be used for this or other muse ideas
-- I spent about a day generating online search keyword suggestions using Google Adwords tools and SEO book tools. I came up with around 100 combinations with various levels of relevance to my muse idea. The ones that are directly related have a very low number of searches per month (less than 500). The ones that have a high number of searches per month (5000-20000) are broader than my desired market. That could lead to too many "false clicks".

My next step is to develop a simple web-site and a short AdWord campaign to validate that the market exists. I'm a little hesitant to do this based on my preliminary findings above. Any other suggestions out there or do I take the plunge and do a test web-site.

For reference, I have worked part-time in this industry for 9 years. In that role, I have provided advice and mentoring to new music stage managers. I've also developed very basic database applications (MS Access, Filemaker) to support my own music stage-management work. I'm sure I could develop a very useful application (with the support of a programmer), but how do I get the idea in front of people and convince them that they need it?

Thanks in advance to your suggestions!
Dave