Help with Niching down

[bigeasy]

Was interested in the flyfishing market, in particular the segment that enjoy flyfishing for redfish/speckled trout. My concern is whether or not it is a viable market. Using google keyword tool I can find the following:

Search term "flyfishing" generates 50,000 searches/month
Search term "saltwater fly fishing" generates 7000 searches/month
Search term "Flyfishing for redfish" generates only 73 searches/month
Search term "redfish flies" generates 1000 searches/month

Assuming a 0.5 - 1 % conversion rate, the bottom two choices would not generate enough interest, unless the data for conversion of specific search terms greatly exceeded that of the more generic terms. Anybody think the last two search term markets would be worth the effort?

[JeffWilliamson]

One thing to remember is that the Adwords keyword tool is just based on an estimate, not actual searches. Some things can be seasonal so the average clicks can be skewed when averaged over an entire year, but may be a killer niche seasonally.

Are you intending on using adwords or organic (search) traffic for these niches?

If you are intending on using adwords for the smaller niches I would just do some research on SEO and try to take over the first or second spot in the regular google rankings for the niche. If it has low searches it might be easy to take over quickly and you could save your adwords budget for one of the bigger keyword terms.

[Vacman]

Even the first option of 50,000 searches may not be enough by itself. (Depends on your goals.)

But 50,000 a month into adwords with a 5% CTR (which is pretty good.) You'd be looking at 2,500 visitors a month.

Assuming you close 1% of those into sales... then you'll be looking at about 25 sales a month.

Is that enough?

Maybe, maybe not.

But it's good to work the numbers through.

[bigeasy]

Thanks for the input. It has helped me as you have confirmed what I understood from reading the book - that you could expect a CTR of 1% and then expect a conversion rate of 1% of those that click through. Even with the traffic itself being heavily specialized, a CTR of 5% seems overly generous. I had toyed with the idea of affiliate marketing to this group, but the profit margin would be too slim. I guess this is Tim's point about micro-testing your idea. I could still test these ideas and see what type of traffic I could generate, but I really don't want to spend 500 - 1000$ microtesting what seems to be a financially invalid idea. Thanks again guys!

[gvc223]

I think you could find alot more variations of your keywords instead of just relying on one. For example, I live in Florida and am familiar with Redfish so I know they are in Florida rivers and also in the ocean. The keywords "florida fly fishing" shows 4400 searches per month. I do not know what other areas that redfish can be found, but I'm sure there are others. I also believe redfish are sometimes referred to as "red drum" in these parts. Anyway, just a thought.

[Sven]

Keep in mind that the higher numbers in keyword searches in general have lower clicktrough rates. Even 1 % could be very, very high.

[webgal]

Clustering and long tail keywords.

[bigeasy]

Clustering and long tail keywords.

By clustering I would assume you mean using synonymous search terms ??

I am not sure what you mean by long-tail keywords. :o

Went back to the Muse math section on this site and Tim gives an example of 3 - 5% CTR for highly targeted traffic, and then a good web site gives 0.5 -
1% conversion rate. What I found interesting was that Overture reflected 28% of all searches, so he multiplied his expected searches by 4. Does anyone know what percentage of searches Google Adowrds tool represents?

Thanks again for everyone's input. :handshake smilie: :D

[JKohlbach]

Google has around 60+% market share i think, so you could take from what what you want. I like to count it as "from sources". So I count how many sales I might expect from Google Adwords, how many from Yahoo, MSN, Paid Ads from sites, Magazines, etc. This will get you into the mode of thinking "how else can I promote this thing".

[webgal]

Recently I looked up some words. It showed 1 search per day. I didn't believe it. So I did a cluster of phrases and now we are #1 page of google (#1 in some cases) and it applies to about 10 searches per day which, combined with all the other keywords, adds up to plenty for this client or he'll have to buy his own T2.

Sometimes your intuition is right and you have to test it. I've gone with my intuition on more than one occasion only to find that it was the hot phrase two weeks AFTER I did the SEO and by virtue of being first we were first. I've also gone with my intuition and it tanked but I didn't lose anything. It was worth a shot.